3-year Employment Outlooks - Questions and Answers
1. What are the 3-year employment outlooks?
The 3-year employment outlooks assess whether the employment outlook over the next 3 years for an occupation in a specific region is:
| Very Good | Good | Moderate | Limited | Very Limited | undetermined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ | - |
The ranks show how that occupation compares to others in its province, while the text provides a detailed explanation.
The outlooks do not measure if there is a labour shortage for that occupation in that particular region, rather they evaluate the prospects of finding a job.
2. How are the 3-year employment outlooks presented on Job Bank?
Outlooks are presented on the Job Bank website for each occupation, in each province, territory and economic region. The employment outlooks consist of 2 parts:
- A star rating (out of five) to state whether the outlook for this occupation is:
- Text providing additional facts explaining the situation of that occupation in that region, such as the number of people working in the occupation, the number of fulltime versus part time workers, or in which industry this occupation can be found.
| Very Good | Good | Moderate | Limited | Very Limited |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ |
3. How are the 3-year employment Outlooks developed?
The 3-year employment outlooks use an advanced economic model to analyze data and produce employment projections. These projections are made for each economic region, province, and territory.
By using data available in all regions, statistical techniques, and knowledge from labour market specialists, the model creates a prediction of where the labour market is most likely to be in three years' time, and what that means for employment.
The model then scores each occupation using multiple factors, such as the employment growth rate by occupation, the number of people leaving the occupation, and the number of experienced individuals looking for work in the occupation. These scores are then used to give a rating out of five stars.
| Very Good | Good | Moderate | Limited | Very Limited | undetermined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | ★★★★ | ★★★ | ★★ | ★ | - |
The scores, along with facts and information about each occupation and region, are then published on Job Bank.
For more information on the 3-year employment outlooks methodology, see our methodology page.
4. What information are used to develop the 3-year employment outlooks?
The main sources of information used in developing the employment outlooks include, but are not limited to, the following:
- Census (Statistics Canada)
- Labour Force Survey (Statistics Canada)
- Employment Insurance administrative data (Employment and Social Development Canada)
- Other organizations
- Labour market news from across Canada
5. What do the rankings mean?
| Label | Detail explanation |
|---|---|
| Very Good | This outlook rating is assigned to occupations where the short- and medium-term potential for employment is significantly higher than the regional average, compared to other occupations. This situation is very favorable to job seekers and may be associated with one or more of the following factors: strong job growth; low unemployment rates; high retirement rates; high turnover rates; a lack of skilled or experienced labor; very specific job requirements and/or a lack of interest from the available labor force, etc. |
| Good | This outlook rating is assigned to occupations where the short- and medium-term potential for employment is higher than the regional average, compared to other occupations. This situation is favorable to job seekers and may be associated with one or more of the following factors: moderate job growth; low unemployment rates; moderate retirement rates; high turnover rates; a lack of skilled or experienced labor; very specific job requirements and/or a lack of interest from the available labor force, etc. |
| Moderate | This outlook rating is assigned to occupations where the short- and medium-term potential for employment is comparable to the regional average for all occupations. This situation occurs when the number of available workers corresponds to the demand for labor. |
| Limited | This outlook rating is assigned to occupations where the short- and medium-term potential for employment is below the regional average, compared to other occupations. This situation is often associated with one or more of the following factors: weak employment growth or decline; high unemployment rates; low retirement rates, etc. This is a difficult situation for job seekers, particularly for inexperienced candidates, which may indicate that the number of workers available in the region exceeds the expected job openings. |
| Very limited | This outlook rating is assigned to occupations where the short- and medium-term potential for employment is significantly lower than the regional average, compared to other occupations. This situation is often associated with one or more of the following factors: very weak job growth or decline; very high unemployment rates; very low retirement rates, etc. This is the most difficult situation for job seekers, especially for inexperienced candidates, which may indicate that the number of workers available in the region exceeds the expected job openings. |
6. What does the ranking "undetermined" mean?
In the 3-year employment outlooks, some occupations in certain regions may receive "undetermined" rankings. This ranking is given when there is no information, or not enough information, to accurately score an occupation. For example, if an occupation has too few people, then the model may be unable to accurately predict its outlook over the 3-year timeframe. In such cases, the occupation is given an ¿undetermined¿ ranking.
7. When are the 3-year employment outlooks updated on the Job Bank Web site?
Employment outlooks are updated on Job Bank and the Government of Canada's open data portal on an annual basis, usually in November or December of the first year of the 3-year period covered.
8. How long are the 3-year employment outlooks valid?
The employment outlooks represent a 3-year period. For example, the information posted in 2024 will provide outlooks for all occupations for the years 2024, 2025 and 2026.
9. Why are they for only 3 years?
The outlooks process uses a 3-year forecast because it allows for accurate forecasts to be made at the occupational and regional level, while avoiding the possible disadvantages associated with longer or shorter term forecasts.
10. How are occupations defined?
Occupations are defined by the National Occupational Classification (NOC) system. This system groups various job titles and occupations into 516 categories, allowing occupations that have similar traits to be represented as one code. The 2024-26 employment outlooks are based on the NOC 2021. For more information, please visit the NOC website at National Occupational Classification - Canada.ca (esdc.gc.ca).
11. Are the rankings comparable nationally?
No, the employment outlooks aren't comparable nationally. Because each region and province can be experiencing vastly different labour situations, the outlooks are only comparable within the same province. This allows for local labour markets to reflect their trends without being affected by much different markets from different provinces.
12. Why can the 3-year employment outlooks be different from one region to another?
The 3-year employment outlooks cover each region, within each province and territory across Canada. Each region has its own labour market, which can be very different from other nearby regions. For example, a primarily urban area is likely to experience different labour market conditions compared to a neighbouring rural area.
13. Do the rankings tend to become reality?
The 3-year employment outlooks use a method based on statistics to project how the labour market could change over three years. These are estimates based on a proven methodology but there will always be unforeseen factors that could affect the predictions.
For further information, please contact the Labour Market Information (LMI) team.
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